Coganomics: Recession is OVER!!!!(Series-19)
July 30, 2009:
This week, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index that tracks homes in 20 metropolitan areas rose .5% for a three-month period ending in May. YESSS… It freaken rose! This marks the first time in 34 months that this thing rose.
Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years, according to a new report that provided fresh evidence that the severe U.S. housing downturn could be easing.
Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5% for the three-month period ending in May, compared with the three months ending in April. It marked the index’s first increase after 34 straight months of decline, and came after a variety of housing indicators has shown glimmers of hope for the past several months. Click here to read more
Do you know what this means? Two things. First of all, I kind of think the worst is getting behind us. You may have noticed I never really said that we’re coming out of the great recession here until now… By the way, it’s not only because the S&P said home prices rose for the first time in three years. But it’s certainly an indicator and it’s a strong indicator. But my opinion has always been based on my own experiences being in the trenches and the information that we get from you people I talk too.
The big reason I think the worst is getting behind us right now is because we have a lot of able-bodied, well-qualified borrowers out there that want to buy homes. =)
Stocks climbed Thursday to their highest levels this year as investors cheered favorable earnings reports and signs the economy could be stabilizing.
All of the major indexes were up about 2 percent during early trading, but lost ground during the last hour of trading. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 0.9 percent, or 83.74 points to close at 9154.46. That is the highest close for the Dow, an index of blue-chip stocks, since November. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was up 1.2 percent, or 11.6 points to 986.75, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.8 percent, or 16.54 points to 1984.30 — both also hitting high points for the year. Click Here to Read More
Oh and by the way, do you remember about a year when everyone said, “We have enough inventory in our local MLS to last us like a five-year period?” Well those days are gone and they’re long gone. You don’t have enough inventory right now in your MLS to probably last you through the month.
I spoke with countless realtors and they tell us the same thing. That their true struggles are finding homes to sell not borrowers to buy. Resulting in MULTIPLE OFFERS on a property. So August 2006 is when this thing started… And July of 2009 is, maybe, well… when it stopped.
Awww the crazzzzy times are over… FINALLY!!!!!
Okay, enough of bull…. It’s back on. What is? What am I talking about? THE RECESSION!!! You just said it was gone. It was over. Until you really dig deeper =)
Look here… The durable goods orders they came in and they plunged 2.5% for the month of June. These numbers are much worse than expected.
In economics, a durable good or a hard good is a good which does not quickly wear out, or more specifically, it yields services or utility over time rather than being completely used up when used once. Most goods are therefore durable goods to a certain degree. These are goods that can last for a relatively long time, such as refrigerators, cars, and DVD players. Clicker Here to Read More
Economists expected them to be flat. Well, they went down 2.5%. You may know that durable goods are items that are intended to last over a three-year period.
In other words, durable goods retreated to a level we haven’t seen since February. Durable goods orders exclude transportation like airplanes and things like that. Analysts expected these numbers to be flat at worst. Durable goods numbers include military orders such as tanks and trucks and surface-to-air missiles and things like that.
Consumer confidence is down. Housing Market inventory is down (based on listed properties, not including shadow inventory). Alt-Open hitting the market. New Bank Accounting rule. Fake Corporate Earning.
Funny news… Chicago management company has sued a tenant over a Twitter they tweeted about mold in their apartment. Horizon wants 50 grand from a Mrs. Bonant because she had disparaging things to say probably…oh…Five of her closest friends that none of you would have ever known about without Horizon’s stupid, stupid lawsuit.
Well, there’s a moral to this story. And whatever your daily endeavors bring you, it’s possible the fallout of your actions might be worse than whatever the initial offense was. Horizon ought to sue themselves because they’ve done more damage than Amanda Bonant could have done on her worst day. I have never in my life heard of Horizon Realty. Ever. Now I know all about them. They manage properties in Chicago and there’s potential mold in their units. So they have created a bigger problem. Huge mess!
That’s all… Sorry folks, I just finished my beer.
Jeff Coga
Tags: California Real Estate Market, DOW, durable goods order, economy, jeff coga, JeffCoga.com, recession is over, short sales buyers, shortsalesbuyers.com, standard & poor's case - shiller
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