10/29/2010
Below is the report from John William who runs “shadow statistic” who I’ve been following for the last 2 years. He is very technical but has been on the money with many of his calls. He is one of the many people I turn to when it comes to hardcore #’s on where we are and where are we headed.
He clearly states in his report that there is fear in the market for a “double dip”. Also… tie this information from John Williams with Dr. Housing Bubble.
“74 million owner occupied housing units exist in the U.S. Of those homes, over 50 million have mortgages. Of those 50 million loans, over 11 million are underwater. As things stand today, there are roughly 2 million active foreclosures. Another 5 million Americans have stopped paying their mortgage.”
You can clearly see we are in some deep dookie…
And there is an old saying in wall street which is to buy the rumor and sell the news… the rumor has been “quantitative easing” (this is for another time) and the news will come out probably first week of November (3rd or after)… It will be interesting to see the next few months… but if you remember 2008 (Jan I believe) Fed reserve said they will cut an entire point… the news was 75 bases points.. and then the dollar rallied…
Why is all of this important? All markets are based on confidence. We have a lack of confidence in the consumer industry and it has trickled down to the RE market. We have felt the market soften for the last few months and especially the last few weeks.
The test is going to be the stock market. I have no doubt in my mind that the debt and the entitlements we processed to our people will be our down fall. Watch a close eye on our stock market and our credit rating. Within the next 12 months we will see a huge swing. It will not surprise me if our countries credit rating drops to AA, AA-, or the scariest A… Now… I am not saying this to be a naysayer or “scary” folks. I’m making this bold statement to not be blind with the BULL SHIT media. Do your own homework and capitalize on the market. I guarantee you that if the market does another epic drop as it did in 2008. You can ABSOLUTELY make a killing.
Now… Is this going to affect us as investors/realtors? Yes. Can we profit by knowing where we are headed? I believe that is a big YES. As we saw the S.Cali market rally from Nov 2009 to March 2010ish (I made blog post that called about government intervention) we may see the same surge (or not). This surge may or may not be as strong but the music is playing and it will be interesting to see when the dj will change the song…
Just wanted to pass on this report so you can be aware of where we are at and get your thoughts.
Jeff Coga
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